English to Romanian Science Environment & Ecology

Backcasting” from Principles of Success: Introduction to The
Natural Step Framework and Approach
The Natural Step Framework is built on “backcasting” from “basic principles of success.”
Backcasting refers to a planning procedure by which a successful outcome of
the planning is imagined in the future, followed by the question: “what was it that we
did today, that allowed us to get there?” The term “basic principles of success”
denotes principles that
† are general enough to cover the successful outcome (i.e., social and ecological
sustainability) and to be independent of scale or field of activity;
† are concrete enough to guide problem analysis and creative solutions;
† are not overlapping, so that comprehension is supported, and so that metrics
for the monitoring of progress can later be developed.
The methodology has been elaborated from “backcasting from scenarios” (Robinson,
1990), a planning approach that begins with envisioning a picture of success.
This scenario approach is similar to working on a jigsaw puzzle while being
guided by a specific image of the finished puzzle.
Backcasting from scenarios, however, has some disadvantages when applied to
sustainable development. First, it is difficult to develop detailed scenario descriptions
of a successful sustainable outcome upon which many people will agree.
Secondly, there is often a resistance to making very detailed plans in the light of
the ongoing technical development that may subsequently change the conditions
for the planning. Finally, how do we know if a detailed description of a sustainable
enterprise or society really is sustainable? Decision-makers appear to face great
uncertainty.
These shortcomings, however, can be addressed by an adapted approach of
‘backcasting from basic principles of success.’ This approach resembles a game
of chess rather than a jigsaw puzzle. It is the principles of success – such as the principle
of checkmate – that guide the game. This is a dynamic way of planning,
whereby each move takes the current situation of the game into account while at
the same time optimizing the possibility of winning, which can come about in
many different ways. One of several advantages of this method is that it is easier